Thursday, October 28, 2010

2010-11 Orlando Magic Predictions

Written by Anthony Moretti on October 26, 2010

Odds to Win the 2010-11 NBA Finals: The Orlando Magic are one of the best five teams in the league and their betting odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Finals indicate that. At +1,000 (10 to 1) only Miami (+170), LA Lakers (+300), and Celtics (+900) have better odds. This translates into linesmakers giving Orlando a 9% chance of winning the title this season.

Odds to Win the East: Checking the the live NBA odds, Orlando is one of the leading two teams most probable to win the Eastern Conference. At +450, this gives the Magic a predicted 18% likelihood of representing the East in the Finals.

Over/Under Win Projection: the Magic won 59 games last year, but Sportsbook.com set the Magics' over/under for wins at 54.5. the reason for this drop is probably due to Miami signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh into the division. the good news is that Orlando is a near sure thing to reach the postseason. What they do when postseason begins will be the real story.

Suggestion: At 10-1 to win the NBA title Orlando is worth a deeper study. They don't get the hype of Miami, LA, or Boston, but they might be the second best team in the league this year. You don't get the same value on the Magic with their betting odds to win the conference, but I don't think it would be a terrible bet to get them at 4.5-1. as for their season win total, I'm leaning toward the "over" 54.5 victories. They've won 59 times for two consecutive years and it's hard to see where a 4-5 game downward swing would originate.

Strengths: Defense and outside shooting are both major assets for the Magic. Dwight Howard is the most intimidating defender in the league. he does a great job of shutting down the inside, liberating the rest of the team to make mistakes that he can mop up.

Howard's presence in the paint on the offensive side also opens up a lot of 3-point opportunities for Orlando. No team shot from beyond the arc more times last year and they haven't made any major moves that would lead me to believe they won't be prosperous at it again this season.

Weaknesses: The major concern the Magic presented last year in the postseason is an inability to create shots, something that's likely to continue to be a problem this season. They'll take shots from outside or feed it to Howard, but if Howard is shut-down offensively (as he was against the Celtics), the Magic have the players to drive and generate points or scoring chances on their own.

Predictions: Orlando didn't do a lot in the summer because they didn't need to. They were where they needed to be last year and should compete for the Eastern Conference title again this season. the Heat are seen as the favorite in the division, but Orlando does have Dwight Howard, and I'll be interested to see how the "Big Three" deal with an elite post player surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

I'm big on the Orlando Magic this year, but I have to put them at 2nd place in the Southeast Division. the Heat look too strong. What I do expect is for Orlando to easily reach the postseason and make another deep run.

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2010-11 Orlando Magic Predictions


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