UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez Odds and Predictions for Every Fight

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UFC 121 is one of the most stacked cards of the year in terms of relevance and star power.  But what does any of that do for the degenerate gambler in us all?

Not to worry, friends, because UFC 121 is packed with tons of value on both sides of the coin.

Here are my technical breakdowns and picks for all of the fights.

Main Card

Brock Lesnar (5-1) -155 vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0) +125

The mega-fight between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez is about as big of a blockbuster as you can get, and from a technical perspective, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

With an NCAA title, Lesnar might theoretically have the slightly better wrestling, but Velasquez was a NCAA semi-finalist himself, and if he can simply keep the fight on the feet, he should have the advantage in the striking.

More than that, Lesnar is a decade removed from his NCAA title, so even his perceived wrestling advantage is questionable.

When it comes to MMA, both Lesnar and Velasquez have picked up the game incredibly quickly, but Velasquez probably has become the more well-rounded fighter, having picked up some pretty good kickboxing skills to go along with his wrestling base.

Now if the fight stays on the feet, Velasquez should own the advantage, especially if Lesnar is forced to waste energy in vain going after takedowns.  If Lesnar is forced to expend his energy in this way, we could see Velasquez’s assumed cardio advantage come into play.

Of course, Lesnar’s power will be a factor in this fight, but the odds still favor Velasquez when all is said and done.

In fact, it’s my believe that the betting public has this fight totally wrong, with Lesnar as the favorite.

He could win, but the smart money is on Velasquez who should be an outright favorite to take the mantle of “baddest man on the planet.”

Betting pick: Velasquez at Even or better.

 Jake Shields (25-4-1) -260 vs. Martin Kampmann (17-3) +210

Martin Kampmann is an extremely well-rounded fighter, but when he’s going up against Jake Shields, the fight is bound to turn into a basic striker-grappler dynamic, as Shields will have no option but to take Kampmann down, due to Kampmann’s superior striking.

Fortunately for Shields, he’s very good at finishing takedowns, and controlling fights on the ground.

One obstacle in Shields’ way is that Kampmann does have a very good front-headlock series, should Shields get lazy on a takedown. that said, if Shields can avoid this, he’s good enough to control this fight to a decision, even if a submission win is unlikely.

As for the odds, Kampmann might look appealing at +210, with the decided striking advantage, and a front headlock that could stifle Shields’ offence. still, I think Shields will find a way to bring this fight to the ground in all three rounds en route to a unanimous decision. 

Betting pick: Shields at -260 or better.

Paulo Thiago (13-2) -130 vs. Diego Sanchez (21-4) EVEN

Neither Paulo Thiago nor Diego Sanchez looked great in their last fights. in fact, both were dominated. in this fight, we’re likely to see a much more interesting dynamic, though.

Sanchez has failed recently because it’s become abundantly clear that his striking isn’t up to par with the modern elite MMA fighters, and his wrestling isn’t good enough to take the fights to where he really shines on the ground.

Luckily for Sanchez, Thiago hasn’t shown much in the way of wrestling defense so far in his UFC career, and he’s prone to losing scrambles, which Sanchez is usually pretty good at winning.

I feel like good game-planning Sanchez, who is returning to Greg Jackson’s stable, should allow him to control this fight on the ground, where he’ll win the majority of scrambles, and win up winning a decision.

Thiago has dangerous submissions, and swings with wild haymakers, but if Sanchez plays this smart, I feel like he’s going to win.

If Sanchez loses, of course, his loss will be attributed to him being “too small” for the welterweight division, and we’ll look to see him back against lightweights in the near future.

Betting pick: Sanchez at Even or better.

Matt Hamill (9-2) -175 vs. Tito Ortiz (15-7-1) +145

The bettors have sided with Hamill in this one, and for once, I have to agree.

Ortiz rarely wins if he doesn’t have a wrestling advantage, and he doesn’t have one in this fight.

Furthermore, he’s had chronic health issues, and it’s getting hard to believe him now every time he says that he’s “finally healthy.”

Add on the perceived struggles in Ortiz’s personal life, and picking Hamill is a no-brainer, though -175 is a bit steep.

Betting pick: Hamill at -175 is a bit risky, but it’s still probably the better play, as you won’t get mad at yourself afterward for trusting Tito’s latest claims of 100 percent healthiness.

 Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5) -200 vs. Brendan Schaub (6-1) +160

Gonzaga is rightly favored in this fight because he has an advantage in just about every skill category.

Schaub brings good physical abilities, but really should be out-classed both on the feet and on the ground.

Gonzaga is seen as having a bit of a questionable chin, but Schaub’s chin didn’t look much better against Roy Nelson, not to mention his horrible lack of defense against the overhand right.

Even at -200, Gonzaga is the smarter choice.

Betting pick: Gonzaga at -200 or better.

On Spike

Court McGee (10-1) -260 vs. Ryan Jensen (15-6) +200

Ryan Jensen is a solid test for a relative newcomer like McGee. that said, McGee has shown well-rounded skills of his own, and a solid mental game to go along with it.

Betting pick: McGee

 Patrick Cote (13-6) -175 vs. Tom Lawlor (6-3) +145

To date, Lawlor’s worst enemy has been his own gas tank. Cote’s worst enemy has been that he’s occasionally become complacent during fights, allowing his opponents to keep the fight close.

Lawlor should have an advantage in the wrestling department, but if he uses his wrestling, there’s always a chance that he gasses out late, and gets KO’d.

Cote, on the other hand, should be able to win if he keeps up the pressure, but he’ll need to watch out for the guillotine choke if he gets lazy on a takedown.

I favor Cote slightly in this fight, but probably not enough to lay down any serious coin.

Betting pick: Cote

Preliminary Card

Daniel Roberts (10-1) -155 vs. Mike Guymon (12-3-1) +125

Betting pick: Roberts

Sam Stout (15-6-1) -165 vs. Paul Taylor (10-5-1) +145

Betting pick: Stout

Dongi Yang (9-0) -150 vs. Chris Camozzi (13-3) +120

Betting pick: Camozzi

Jon Madsen (6-0) -225 vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-15-1) +175Betting pick: Madsen

Best overall opportunities to make money: Velasquez over Lesnar, and Madsen over Yvel.

UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez Odds and Predictions for Every Fight

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